确定全球水资源短缺的第一次出现和消失的时间
Junguo Liu1,2, Delong Li3,4, He Chen3
1Yellow River Research Institute, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China. junguo.liu@gmail.com.
Nature communications
|August 20, 2024
概括
从历史上看,亚洲和非洲的水资源短缺发作 (FirstWS) 在亚洲和非洲达到顶峰. 未来的情景表明,FirstWS将主要影响非洲,而由于人口变化,EndWS可能会出现在中国.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 水文学的水文学
- 可持续性研究是关于可持续性的研究.
背景情况:
- 水资源短缺是一个关键的全球挑战,是可持续发展目标6的核心.
- 在气候变化和人口转移下,水资源短缺的出现和缓解的时间动态尚未得到充分理解.
- 调查水资源短缺的时间对于有效的适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估水资源短缺的第一次出现 (FirstWS) 和水资源短缺的消失 (EndWS) 的时间.
- 在各种气候和社会经济情景下,分析全球不同地区的这些时间.
- 为区域水资源管理和政策制定提供见解.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自六个全球水文模型的模拟集.
- 采用了两个代表性集中途径 (RCP2.6,RCP6.0) 和两个共享社会经济途径 (SSP2,SSP3).
- 分析了历史 (1901-2020) 和未来 (2021-2090) 时期,以确定第一WS和最后WS的时间.
主要成果:
- 从历史上看,第一WS主要发生在亚洲 (中国,印度) 和东非,在20世纪80年代左右达到顶峰.
- 未来的预测 (2021-2090) 表明,第一WS将主要影响非洲,与亚洲相比,新受影响的地区可能翻一番.
- 预计2050年以后,EndWS主要发生在中国,这与人口下降趋势有关.
结论:
- 非洲面临着新出现的水资源短缺的显著增加,需要采取紧急的适应措施.
- 中国可能会从水资源短缺中得到缓解,这在很大程度上是由人口结构变化所驱动的.
- 有针对性的干预措施是必要的,以应对水资源短缺时间的独特区域挑战.
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