适应性机器学习用于风能预测:用于短期和长期预测的动态,多算法方法
Mutaz AlShafeey1, Csaba Csaki1
1Institute of Data Analytics and Information Systems, Corvinus University of Budapest, Budapest, Fővám tér 13-15, H-1093, Hungary.
Heliyon
|August 21, 2024
概括
一个新的动态混合模型使用人工神经网络,支持矢量机器和K-Nearest Neighbors来提高风能预测的准确性. 这种先进的模型为电网运营商提供了卓越的短期和长期预测.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
背景情况:
- 准确的风能预测对于电网稳定性和高效的可再生能源整合至关重要.
- 现有的预测模型往往在短期和长期预测中难以达到不同的准确性.
- 多个机器学习算法的集成可能会提高预测性能.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个动态混合模型,用于准确的风能预测.
- 为了提高短期 (15分钟间隔) 和长期的预测准确性.
- 根据历史表现,根据适应性选择最有效的预测技术.
主要方法:
- 时间序列风能发电数据的同化.
- 整合人工神经网络 (ANN),支持矢量机 (SVM) 和K-最近邻居 (K-NN) 算法.
- 开发用于自适应算法选择的动态切换机制.
- 使用2MW电网连接风力轮机数据集进行比较性能评估.
主要成果:
- 与单个算法和现有文献相比,动态混合模型显示出更高的预测准确性.
- 实现了5.54%的正常化平均绝对误差 (NMAE),优于其他模型 (NMAE5.65%-9.22%).
- 该模型在短期和长期风能预测中显示出显著的改进.
结论:
- 拟议的动态混合模型为风能预测提供了一个强大而通用的解决方案.
- 它的适应性使得它对电网运营商和风电场管理非常有价值.
- 该模型的成功表明其在其他预测分析领域的潜在适用性.
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