使用社会脆弱性指数来预测库克县 (伊利诺伊州) 预防突发意外婴儿死亡的优先领域:跨部门研究
Daniel P Riggins1,2, Huiyuan Zhang1, William E Trick1
1Center for Health Equity & Innovation, Cook County Health, 1950 W Polk St, Suite 5807, Chicago, IL, 60612, United States, 1 773-280-5588.
JMIR public health and surveillance
|August 21, 2024
概括
婴儿突然意外死亡 (SUID) 率持续存在,种族和社会经济差异显著. 这项研究开发了一种预测模型,用于识别有针对性的SUD预防工作的高风险社区.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 自2000年代中期以来,突然意外婴儿死亡 (SUID) 发生率保持不变,尽管有安全睡眠的倡议.
- 持续的种族和社会经济差异在SUID结果及其空间分布中很明显.
- 针对性,地理特定的预防策略对于减少SUID和解决差异至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在库克县,伊利诺伊州 (2015-2019) 描述SUID的社区.
- 预测库克县未来的SUID事件 (2021-2025年).
- 通过识别高风险地区,支持社区级 SUID 预防.
主要方法:
- 对SUID病例的地理编码法医数据 (2015-2019) 的回顾性分析.
- 社区层面的聚合和使用Wilcoxon排名和值测试进行人口统计比较.
- 开发一个负二项式预测模型,使用社会脆弱性指标来预测SUID数量.
主要成果:
- 325个SUID病例被确定,数据验证准确度高 (95%的灵敏度,98%的特异性).
- SUID病例集中在库克县南部和西部,主要在芝加哥市范围内.
- 受影响的社区显示,非西班牙裔白人人口明显减少,非西班牙裔黑人人口增加.
- 预测模型确定了奥斯,恩格尔伍德,奥本格雷舍姆,芝加哥草和南海岸作为预计SUID数量最高的地区 (2021-2025).
结论:
- 在库克县,SUID发病率的种族和社会经济差异仍然存在.
- 预测模型和空间绘图确定了针对性公共卫生干预的特定领域.
- 该方法和数据源可以被其他司法管辖区适用于本地化SUD预防计划.
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