未来草原转化为耕地或开发的景观规模预测
Kevin W Barnes1, Neal D Niemuth2, Rich Iovanna3
1Habitat and Population Evaluation Team, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Hadley, Massachusetts, USA.
概括
新的模型预测未来的草原损失到整个美国的开发和作物. 这些景观规模的工具评估风险,以改善保护规划,并优先考虑未受保护的草原.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护科学 保护科学
- 空间建模 空间建模
背景情况:
- 草原保护规划往往忽视了景观规模和多维风险评估.
- 现有的转换模型可能与保护需求或生态尺度不一致.
研究的目的:
- 开发景观规模模型来预测未来的草原损失 (2021-2031).
- 评估不受保护的草原对耕地或开发的总和比例损失.
- 通过在相关尺度上提供多维风险评估来帮助保护规划.
主要方法:
- 开发了20个美国生态区域的随机森林回归模型.
- 与过去的草原转换 (2011-2021) 相关的景观共变量.
- 使用当代协变量预测未来损失.
主要成果:
- 草原损失模型在生态区域中表现出强的表现 (R2:总损失为0.83-0.96,比例损失为0.64-0.87).
- 关键预测因素包括作物存在,城市地区的距离,乙醇工厂和动物养业务.
- 损失模式因景观组成而异;中等 (∼50%) 或低 (∼<30%) 的草原百分比增加了损失.
结论:
- 开发的模型提供了一种灵活和可扩展的方法,用于创建保护风险层.
- 这些模型可以通过基于风险的优先级来加强保护规划.
- 调查结果强调了景观背景的重要性,以及草原转型中与人为因素的接近.
关键词:
农业农业的劳动力.保护计划 保护规划保护系统的系统设计扩张 扩张 扩张这是一个保护平面.风险 风险 风险 风险 风险危险的风险 危险的风险扩散 扩散 扩散 扩散系统的保护设计.耕地 耕地 农业 农业这就是脆弱的脆弱性.漏洞的脆弱性 漏洞的脆弱性保护计划 保护计划无序扩张的无序扩张.系统的保护设计.耕作 农业 农业脆弱性 脆弱性的风险 风险 风险 风险更多相关视频
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