温度和生育能力:来自西班牙的证据
Risto Conte Keivabu1, Marco Cozzani2, Joshua Wilde1
1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
Population studies
|August 21, 2024
概括
发现西班牙的炎热天气 (≥25°C) 降低了9个月后的总生育率. 这种对生育率的影响在各种人口和环境因素中是一致的,这表明气候变化对出生模式的潜在影响.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球生育率正在下降,特别是在发达国家.
- 气候变化越来越多地被认为对人类健康和社会功能的潜在影响.
- 了解环境对生殖行为的影响对于人口动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查西班牙每日平均气温与生育率之间的关系.
- 为了确定温度升高是否会影响总生育率.
- 分析不同的人口和环境因素对这种效应的潜在变化.
主要方法:
- 使用了西班牙 (2010-2018) 的行政数据.
- 综合的每日气象数据,特别是每日平均温度.
- 采用统计分析来确定温度和生育结果之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 在暴露在炎热的日子 (≥25°C) 后,总生育率的统计显著下降被观察到.
- 对生育能力的影响在高温暴露后的9个月后表现出来.
- 根据母亲的年龄,教育,新生儿的性别,气候区或空调的流行情况,没有发现实质性的异质性.
结论:
- 每日平均温度,特别是热量暴露,对西班牙的生育率产生了负面影响.
- 气候变化可能会影响出生时间和整体生育率趋势.
- 这些发现对于那些人口快速老龄化和面临气候变化影响的低生育率国家来说很重要.
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