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人类和野生动物在21世纪的全球扩张重叠
Deqiang Ma1, Briana Abrahms2, Jacob Allgeier3
1Institute for Global Change Biology, School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Science advances
|August 21, 2024
概括
人类和野生动物的重叠预计到2070年将在地球的一半以上增加,主要是由于人口增长,而不是气候变化对野生动物的影响. 这凸显了本地化保护战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 全球变化科学科学 全球变化科学
背景情况:
- 人类和野生动物的重叠对生物多样性和生态系统服务至关重要.
- 全球变化对人类和野生动物的空间和时间重叠的未来影响仍然在很大程度上未被评估.
研究的目的:
- 评估到2070年全球人类人口和陆地脊椎动物物种之间未来的潜在空间重叠.
- 确定人类与野生动物重叠预测变化的主要驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球人类人口密度预测.
- 分析了22374种陆地脊椎动物物种的分布.
- 在未来的全球变化场景下建模了潜在的空间重叠.
主要成果:
- 预计到2070年,人类与野生动物的潜在重叠将在地球大约56.6%的陆地表面上增加.
- 预计只有大约11.8%的陆地表面的重叠减少.
- 越来越多的重叠主要是由人类人口的加剧驱动的,而不是野生动物分布的气候引起的变化.
结论:
- 未来人类与野生动物的重叠显示出显著的空间异质性,强调了当地环境的重要性.
- 基于区域的土地利用规划必须纳入系统的保护工作,以应对未来的重叠挑战.
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