气候模型预测的变化如何为气候适应和海洋保护区管理提供信息:一个协作原型方法论
Daniel Morris1, Deepak Cherian2, Frederic Castruccio2
1College of Forestry, Wildlife, and Environment, Auburn University, 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL, 36830, USA.
Journal of environmental management
|August 21, 2024
概括
这项研究整合了气候模型和生态系统数据,以帮助环境管理者保护珊瑚礁免受气候变化的影响. 它的重点是适应性治理,以适应性海洋生态系统.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境管理环境管理
背景情况:
- 珊瑚礁是受到气候变化威胁的重要生态系统.
- 现有的气候模型通常对当地环境管理来说过于昂贵.
- 珊瑚礁管理需要适应性治理策略.
研究的目的:
- 为珊瑚礁管理制定具有成本效益的,特定地点的气候预测.
- 将气候数据与生态系统响应模型和社会科学见解相结合.
- 了解环境管理者如何为珊瑚礁实施适应性治理.
主要方法:
- 使用社区地球系统模型版本2大集合 (CESM2-LE) 进行特定地点的气候指标.
- 采用生态系统响应模型来评估珊瑚漂白风险 (温度升高的几个月).
- 通过与主要海洋保护区的环境管理人员进行接触,收集社会科学数据.
主要成果:
- 展示了一种新的协作方法,以生成定制的气候预测.
- 在未来的气候情景下,量化了珊瑚漂白的潜在影响.
- 确定了海洋保护区管理人员使用的适应性治理策略.
结论:
- 这项研究为珊瑚礁气候适应提供了一个可扩展,具有成本效益的框架.
- 它为环境管理者提供了可用于创新政策和对话的可操作数据.
- 在面对气候变化的情况下,促进对珊瑚礁管理的实验方法.
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