从扩张到效率:基于机器学习的预测,日本建筑材料库存的人口下降
Lei Wang1, Ruirui Zhang2, Zhiwei Liu3
1School of Information Management, Beijing Information Science & Technology University, Beijing 100192, China.
The Science of the total environment
|August 21, 2024
概括
日本 日本 日本 日本 日本.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 日本正面临着独特的人口变化:人口减少,老龄化和城市化.
- 这些趋势挑战了建筑环境能力与资源效率的协调.
- 了解建筑材料库存 (MS) 动态对于可持续发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2009-2020年日本建筑材料库存 (MS) 的历史演变.
- 在各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下,预测到2050年的MS和空间分布的未来场景.
- 确定建筑领域变革的驱动因素及其与人口动态的联系.
主要方法:
- 综合材料流量和库存分析.
- 量化历史建筑材料积累的量化.
- 预测使用五个不同的SSP用于建筑楼层面积和MS.
主要成果:
- 日本的建筑材料库存增加了,主要是混凝土.
- 人口动态是建筑地区变化的首要驱动力.
- 所有未来的情景都预测MS的总体减少,继续集中在城市核心.
结论:
- 可持续的城市发展需要平衡基础设施和密集地区的保护.
- 人口稀少的地区需要有效管理空置物业和材料.
- 应对人口变化需要综合城市规划和资源管理,以实现可持续发展.
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