探索室内空调的协同温室气体减排潜力和成本
Pengnan Jiang1, Fuli Bai1, Ziwei Chen1
1College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Environmental science & technology
|August 22, 2024
概括
这项研究表明,改善室内空调 (RAC) 制冷剂和能源效率可以显著减少全球温室气体 (GHG) 排放. 实施加速制冷剂过渡和能源效率 (ATE) 措施可以大幅减少排放,避免全球气温上升.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 能源效率 能源效率 能源效率
背景情况:
- 全球室内空调 (RAC) 部门是温室气体 (GHG) 排放的重要贡献者,包括直接的制冷剂泄漏和间接的电力消耗.
- 中国在全球RAC制造业占据主导地位 (80%),使其政策对减缓气候变化的努力至关重要.
- 预计2021年现有的制冷剂和能源效率水平将在业务如常 (BAU) 情景下导致大量的年度排放.
研究的目的:
- 评估全球RAC部门直接和间接温室气体排放的协同降低潜力.
- 为了比较三个减排场景:业务如常 (BAU),符合基加利修正案 (KAE) 和加速制冷剂转型和能源效率 (ATE).
- 评估减排措施的成本效益及其对全球表面温度的影响.
主要方法:
- 情景分析比较BAU,KAE (到2025年提高10%的能源效率) 和ATE (加速过渡和效率).
- 基于基加利修正案分类的不同出口市场组的制冷剂和效率措施的成本评估.
- 估计每个场景的累计温室气体减排和避免的表面温度上升.
主要成果:
- 该BAU场景预测2022-2060年全球RAC平均年排放量约为1Gt CO2-eq.
- 根据KAE和ATE情景的预测,中国RAC制造业的累计排放量分别减少12.2和17.2亿二氧化碳.
- KAE和ATE都提供了成本有效的减排,主要出口市场的负成本和低的平均全球成本,避免了表面温度的显著上升.
结论:
- 加速制冷剂转换和RAC部门的能源效率改进可以大幅减少温室气体排放,并有助于缓解气候变化.
- 存在具有成本效益的减排机会,特别是在A5II和A5I分类的出口市场.
- 中国和进口国之间的国际合作对于提高交易RAC的能源效率和实现与基加利修正案一致的可持续减缓目标至关重要.
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