从1990年到2030年,全球白血病负担,风险因素分析和预测研究
Wenjun Wang1, Donglei Zhang1, Qian Liang2
1Department of Haematology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Journal of global health
|August 22, 2024
概括
全球白血病发病率和死亡率正在上升,特别是在老年人群中. 尽管年龄标准化率下降,但中高中社会人口指数的国家需要采取紧急行动,以应对与年龄相关的疾病负担.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 白血病发病率随着年龄的增长而上升,需要在健康老龄化十年内专注.
- 这项研究解决了白血病的日益增长的疾病负担,特别是在老龄化人口中.
- 了解白血病趋势对于针对与年龄有关的疾病的公共卫生倡议至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计全球目前的白血病疾病负担.
- 预测到2030年的白血病发病率和死亡率趋势.
- 分析年龄,性别和社会人口因素对白血病的影响.
主要方法:
- 全球疾病负担2019数据库的系统分析.
- 利用Joinpoint回归和贝叶斯的年龄时期队列模型进行趋势分析 (1990-2019) 和预测 (到2030年).
- 使用分解和边界分析来评估疾病负担的驱动因素和国家特定的改善潜力.
主要成果:
- 全球白血病发病率和死亡人数有所增加,尽管年龄标准化率 (ASR) 呈现下降趋势.
- 疾病负担在男性,老年人和社会人口指数 (SDI) 高的地区更高.
- 预计全球发病率ASR可能会稳定,而死亡率ASR预计到2030年将下降;吸烟和高BMI是关键风险因素.
结论:
- 全球绝对白血病病例正在增加,这是由于人口增长和老龄化,尽管ASRs正在下降.
- 中等和高中等SDI国家显示出最大的潜力,以减少他们的白血病负担.
- 迫切需要采取公共卫生干预措施,特别是在社会人口发展不断增长的国家.
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