在中国湖南省的结核病的时空空间分析,2014-2022年
Guojun Huang1,2, Zuhui Xu3, Liqiong Bai4
1Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Frontiers in public health
|August 23, 2024
概括
中国湖南省的肺结核病 (PTB) 呈现下降趋势,但有显著的季节性高峰和空间聚类. 在中南部和西北部地区确定了关键热点,指导有针对性的控制工作.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 肺结核 (PTB) 仍然是一个重大的全球健康威胁,特别是在像中国这样的高负担国家.
- 湖南省的PTB通知率很高,需要进行详细的时空空间分析以进行有效的控制.
研究的目的:
- 调查湖南省PTB的时空分布.
- 为制定有针对性的结核病控制政策提供数据驱动的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用来自中国疾病控制和预防信息系统的2014年1月至2022年12月的PTB病例数据.
- 采用时间序列分析用于时间趋势和空间自相关性 (摩兰的I) 空间分布.
- 进行了时空扫描分析,以识别PTB集群热点.
主要成果:
- 在9年内,共报告了472,826起PTB病例,报告率呈下降趋势.
- 观察到显著的季节性变化,在1月至3月达到顶峰,在11月至12月达到低谷.
- 空间分析显示了显著的集群 (莫兰的I:0.1170.317),热点集中在西,张家界和衡阳,以及中南部和西北部地区的初级/二级集群.
结论:
- 该研究阐明了湖南省PTB的时间和空间模式.
- 在中南部和西北部地区,PTB表现出明显的集群.
- 加强结核病控制战略应优先考虑这些确定的高风险地区.
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