季前玉米和小麦产量预测,用于提前警告作物失败
Weston Anderson1,2, Shraddhanand Shukla3, Jim Verdin4
1Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA. weston@umd.edu.
Nature communications
|August 23, 2024
概括
对作物失败的早期预警对于灾难准备至关重要. 这项研究表明,全球季前作物产量预测高达一年的提前技巧,有助于预期行动.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 应对灾害的计划需要提前警告作物失败.
- 目前的作物产量预测缺乏足够的交付时间 (6-12个月).
- 物流方面的挑战阻碍了及时应对灾害.
研究的目的:
- 评估全球季前作物产量预测的可行性.
- 为早期预警系统利用气候预测的进步.
- 为了确定这些预测的技能和地理范围.
主要方法:
- 利用了近期气候预测的进展.
- 开发了全球季前作物产量预测模型.
- 经过验证的预测技能在收获的耕地上.
主要成果:
- 全球季前作物产量预测高达12个月的前景.
- 玉米预测对于15%的收获面积是熟练的.
- 小麦预测对于30%的收获面积是熟练的,有些超过18个月.
- 在东南非洲,东南亚,南亚/中亚,澳大利亚和南美洲观察到的最高技能.
结论:
- 全球季前作物产量预测是可能和熟练的.
- 这些预测提供了比以前理解的更大的潜力.
- 能够改善对粮食安全的预测行动.
相关概念视频
02:41Responses to Drought and Flooding
10.6K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
10.6K
01:16What is Climate?
18.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.4K
02:16Light Acquisition
8.4K
In order to produce glucose, plants need to capture sufficient light energy. Many modern plants have evolved leaves specialized for light acquisition. Leaves can be only millimeters in width or tens of meters wide, depending on the environment. Due to competition for sunlight, evolution has driven the evolution of increasingly larger leaves and taller plants, to avoid shading by their neighbors with contaminant elaboration of root architecture and mechanisms to transport water and nutrients.
8.4K
01:25Multiple Regression
3.0K
Multiple regression assesses a linear relationship between one response or dependent variable and two or more independent variables. It has many practical applications.
Farmers can use multiple regression to determine the crop yield based on more than one factor, such as water availability, fertilizer, soil properties, etc. Here, the crop yield is the response or dependent variable as it depends on the other independent variables. The analysis requires the construction of a scatter plot...
Farmers can use multiple regression to determine the crop yield based on more than one factor, such as water availability, fertilizer, soil properties, etc. Here, the crop yield is the response or dependent variable as it depends on the other independent variables. The analysis requires the construction of a scatter plot...
3.0K