欧洲1368个地区的温度相关死亡负担和预测变化:一个建模研究
David García-León1, Pierre Masselot2, Malcolm N Mistry3
1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Seville, Spain.
The Lancet. Public health
|August 24, 2024
概括
气候变化将增加欧洲与温度相关的死亡人数,特别是在南部地区. 这需要优先考虑脆弱地区和老年人群的适应战略,以减轻健康不平等.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 极端温度对人类健康构成重大风险.
- 预计气候变化将加剧与热量相关的疾病和死亡人数,挑战公共卫生系统.
- 局部评估对于有效应对温度相关风险的公共卫生反应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计欧洲各地区当前和未来与温度相关的死亡风险.
- 在四个不同的气候变化场景下分析这些风险.
- 为公共卫生响应和适应策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 模拟了1368个欧洲地区的非最佳温度死亡率,包括年龄和社会经济因素.
- 采用了来自854个欧洲城市的年龄和城市特定暴露-反应函数的三阶段方法.
- 使用11个气候模型和人口数据组合的预测死亡率,用于当前条件和1.5°C至4°C的全球变暖水平.
主要成果:
- 与温度相关的死亡率存在显著的区域差异,东欧与寒冷相关的死亡人数较高,南欧与热量相关的死亡人数较高.
- 在1991-2020年间,有363,809例与寒冷有关的死亡和43,729例与热有关的死亡.
- 在3°C的变暖情景下,预计到2100年将有54,974人死亡,冷热死亡率将变为2.6:1,特别影响南欧.
结论:
- 与温度相关的死亡率的区域差异很大,并将由于气候变化和人口老龄化而增加.
- 优先保护敏感地区和老年人群对于缓解日益增长的健康不平等至关重要.
- 南欧被确定为一个高风险地区,需要优先考虑的政策干预措施,以适应和增强性.
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