使用机会性样本进行流行病监测的时空样本不平衡的影响:使用真实和模拟的自我报告的COVID-19症状数据进行生态研究
Alejandro Rozo Posada1, Christel Faes2, Philippe Beutels3
1L-BioStat, I-BioStat, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium; Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium.
Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology
|August 24, 2024
概括
时空统计模型可以准确地描述流行病学趋势,即使有不平衡的调查数据. 较大的样本大小对于趋势检测往往比完美的时空平衡更为关键.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 开放式调查往往提供与时空不平衡的数据,使流行病学趋势分析复杂化.
- 监控计划可以通过补充来自机会性,大规模调查的数据来加强.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用不平衡的调查数据,评估时空统计模型在描述流行病学趋势方面的性能.
- 探索采样策略对疾病监测趋势检测的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用来自比利时大规模公开调查的自我报告的COVID-19症状数据.
- 采用了通用线性混合模型来比较自报告症状和测试确认病例的发病率估计.
- 在各种采样策略下模拟的症状发生率,以评估样本失衡和尺寸效应.
主要成果:
- 时空样本不平衡并没有显著影响趋势估计和高风险区域检测的模型性能.
- 较大的样本大小通常比空间时间平衡对准确的趋势检测更为关键,除了低发病率的疾病.
- 在开放调查数据中,模型的表现与不平衡的参与率保持一致.
结论:
- 时空统计模型对于趋势估计是有效的,即使在不完全平衡的调查数据.
- 建议在疾病监测中优先考虑大样本大小而不是完美的时空平衡,特别是对于中度至高发病率的疾病.
- 尽管有其固有的局限性,但在使用适当的统计方法分析时,开放调查数据对于流行病学趋势分析有价值.
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