传染病模型的传染动力学在真实数据下分数衍生与疫苗接种的真实数据下
Muhammad Altaf Khan1, Mahmoud H DarAssi2, Irfan Ahmad3
1Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of the Free State, Bleomfontein, 9300, South Africa.
Computers in biology and medicine
|August 25, 2024
概括
这项研究模拟了麻疹 (MPX) 在英国的传播,发现接种疫苗可以显著减少传播. 疫苗的高效率和吸收率是控制未来MPX疫情的关键.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 麻疹 (MPX) 的复苏带来了重大的公共卫生挑战,需要有效的免疫战略.
- 了解MPX传播动态对于评估疫苗接种活动成功至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用现实世界的数据,调查英国的麻疹疾病动态.
- 通过数学建模,评估疫苗对麻疹传播的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用卡普托衍生物开发一个分数顺序的感染数学模型.
- 对模型属性的分析,包括平衡的积极性,边界性,独特性和稳定性.
- 使用非线性最小平方与英国真实案例数据进行参数估计.
- 分数模型的数值解决方案和灵敏度分析.
主要成果:
- 分析了基本繁殖数 (R0),表明在R0<1.0时,无疾病平衡稳定性.
- 疫苗接种已被证明可以将有效生殖数从大约0.8降低到0.48.
- 敏感性分析确定了疫苗有效性,疫苗衰退率和感染者的疫苗接种作为关键参数.
结论:
- 高效的疫苗,缓慢的疫苗衰退,以及增加的疫苗接种覆盖率,特别是对于感染者来说,可以大幅减少未来的麻疹病例.
- 这项研究提供了一个强大的框架,用于分析麻疹的动态,并为公共卫生干预提供信息.
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