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未来的气候变化和海洋热浪 - - 预计将对鱼繁殖的主要息地产生影响
Matthias Gröger1, Florian Börgel1, Sven Karsten1
1Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestraße 15, 181 19 Rostock, Germany.
The Science of the total environment
|August 25, 2024
概括
全球变暖显著增加了海洋热浪,改变了波罗的海的冬季气候,威胁着鱼繁殖. 将气候变暖限制在1.5°C提供了对这些气候影响的部分缓解.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 渔业科学 渔业科学
背景情况:
- 西波罗的海 (WBS) 鱼种群在过去二十年中急剧下降.
- 全球气候目标旨在限制气候变暖,但它们对海洋生态系统的影响需要详细评估.
研究的目的:
- 调查全球气候目标对波罗的海表面温度和海洋热浪 (MHWs) 的影响.
- 评估预计气候变化对WBS鱼繁殖成功的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用来自合模型相互比较项目的精细集体气候预测.
- 在不同的全球变暖情景 (1.5°C, 2.0°C, 4.0°C) 下分析了MHW频率,持续时间和范围的变化.
- 评估了冬季气候表态的变化及其适合鱼繁殖的情况.
主要成果:
- 在1.5°C的变暖目标下,预计WBS鱼产卵场的MHW日数将增加近三倍,MHW表面范围将增加一倍以上.
- 预计冬季持续时间将显著减少 (25%在2.0°C,60%在4.0°C),导致不适合鱼繁殖的冬季大幅增加 (高达70%).
- 鱼幼虫的热量压力日数增加和冬季条件的变化对未来的生殖失败构成重大风险.
结论:
- 坚持1.5°C的全球变暖目标可以部分减轻对波罗的海海洋生态系统不利的非生物干扰.
- 未能达到气候目标将加剧WBS鱼繁殖的挑战,因为增加了MHW和不利的冬季条件.
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