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使用MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下的三个Ephedra物种的空间分布

Yunfeng Li^1,2, Yan Wang¹, Chunying Zhao¹

¹Chengde Medical University, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengde, Hebei, 067000, China.

|August 26, 2024

概括

气候变化对Ephedra息地产生影响,但对E. sinica,E. intermedia和E. equisetina.来说,未来的分布变化是最小的. 保护工作应专注于关键的环境因素,如土地覆盖面和降雨量.

科学领域:

生态学和环境科学生态学和环境科学
气候变化影响评估气候变化影响评估
生物多样性保护生物多样性保护

背景情况:

全球气候变暖威胁着经济重要埃菲德拉物种的息地,包括Ephedra sinica,E. intermedia和E. equisetina.
对于这些物种在气候变化情景下未来的地理分布,人们的了解有限.
评估潜在的息地和关键的环境变量对于保护规划至关重要.

研究的目的:

评估三种Ephedra物种在气候变化下的潜在分布.
确定影响它们息地的关键环境变量.
预测未来的息地动态,并为保护战略提供信息.

主要方法:

使用发生记录和37个环境因素,采用了优化的MaxEnt模型.
未来的分布模型是使用两个代表性度路径 (SSP2.6和SSP8.5) 建立的,用于2041-2060和2061-2080.
分析的重点是确定合适的地区,关键的环境变量和空间动态变化.

主要成果:

对E. sinica (6.92 × 10^5公里2),E. intermedia (2.95 × 10^5公里) 和E. equisetina (11.5 × 10^5公里) 确定了适合的息地,主要位于内蒙古,甘和新疆.
土地覆盖面和年降水量被确定为关键的环境变量.
超过60%的潜在分布区域受到气候变化的影响,E. sinica在SSP8.5.5下表现出最大的稳定性.

结论:

这三种Ephedra物种在气候变化下分布的波动相对较小,这表明它们具有适度的弹性.
建议采取有针对性的保护和管理措施,考虑适用性值.
这些发现为目前和未来保护Ephedra种群提供了宝贵的见解.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化埃菲德拉是什么意思埃菲德拉是什么意思马克森特模型模型空间动力学空间动力学

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