工业和能源结构对中国部门CO2排放峰值轨迹的重组影响
Juan Yang1,2, Shiwei Yu1,2, Ya-Fang Sun1,2
1Center for Energy Environmental Management and Decision-making, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
iScience
|August 26, 2024
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 能源政策 能源政策
背景情况:
- 中国的双重碳目标需要了解经济部门对排放的影响.
- 工业和能源结构对排放峰值路径的综合影响尚未完全理解.
研究的目的:
- 调查综合工业和能源结构优化对中国碳排放峰值路径的影响.
- 分析结构升级与能源转型对减排的贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个多目标的动态输入输出优化模型.
- 将工业和能源结构的单独优化扩展到一种综合方法.
主要成果:
- 2028年中国与能源相关的二氧化碳排放量预计达到峰值 (10.06-10.25 Gt).
- 工业结构升级在达到峰值方面比能源结构转型有效三倍.
- 40%的行业可以在2030年后达到峰值,而不影响国家目标.
结论:
- 优化工业和能源结构可以导致更早的碳峰值.
- 这种综合方法提高了国内生产总值增长 (增长>0.26%) 和非化石能源份额 (增长>2.78%) 与仅仅减少二氧化碳排放相比.
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