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从异质计数数据中确定大型哺乳动物种群趋势

R Pradel^1,2, P-C Renaud^2,3,4, O Pays^5,6

¹CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD Montpellier France.

Ecology and evolution

|August 26, 2024

概括

野生动物管理人员现在可以使用新的三步方法,从各种人口普查数据中建模人口趋势. 这种方法调和了不同的计数类型,并估计了生长率,改善了各种物种的保护工作.

科学领域:

野生动物生物学野生动物生物学
保护科学保护科学
统计生态学统计生态学

背景情况:

野生动物种群监测对于保护至关重要,但由于来自各种人口普查方法 (例如空中,地面,专家估计) 的异质时间序列数据而受到挑战.
现有的方法难以整合来自不同采样策略,频率和精度水平的数据,阻碍了准确的趋势分析.

研究的目的:

从异质时间序列数据建模野生动物种群趋势的新三步方法.
开发一种灵活且有原则的方法来分析各种历史人口普查数据,增强保护和管理策略.

主要方法:

一种用于构建所有动物计数数据的可信区间的启发式,包括那些缺乏精度指标的数据.
开发转换因子以标准化空中和地面计数,并为广泛的动物类提供估计.
实施贝叶斯模型来估计人口增长率和趋势从协调计数,结合物种特定的人口潜力.

主要成果:

该方法成功地为各种计数类型生成可信的间隔,并为不同物种类别提供标准化的转换因子.
贝叶斯模型准确地估计了人口趋势和年增长率,考虑到数据精度和人口统计局限.
一个定制的R包,popbayes,是为整个方法的可访问实施而开发的.

结论:

提出的三步方法为分析异质野生动物种群时间序列数据提供了强大的解决方案.
该方法促进了所有可用的历史人口普查数据的原则性使用,从而产生了更一致和可靠的趋势估计.
这种灵活的方法适用于广泛的动物物种,可以适应测试关于人口动态的假设.

关键词:

贝叶斯模型是贝叶斯模型.不同质的野生动物人口普查.部分计数部分计数.在 popbayes R 包中使用 popbayes R.人口增长率的人口增长率.人口趋势人口趋势相对增长率的相对增长率总计数总计数总计数总计数野生动物管理和保护.

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