关于地下水对美国作物产量的影响的观察证据
Jillian M Deines1,2, Sotirios V Archontoulis3, Isaiah Huber3
1Department of Earth System Science, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
概括
浅浅的地下水对美国玉米带的玉米产量产生了重大影响,最佳水平增加了3.4%的产量并提高了稳定性,特别是在干旱时期. 这种重要资源在1999-2018年间为农作物价值贡献了约100亿美元.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了农作物对水极端的暴露,需要对农作物的反应有更深入的了解.
- 浅地下水对作物产量的影响是公认的,但缺乏强大的,大规模的经验验证.
- 现有的证据严重依赖于模拟,间接数据或小规模研究,限制了更广泛的应用.
研究的目的:
- 提供实地规模的实证证据,证明浅地下水对美国玉米带的玉米产量的影响.
- 量化最佳的浅地下水位所带来的产量效益和稳定性.
- 评估两十年来地下水产量相互作用的经济贡献.
主要方法:
- 利用了跨越1999-2018年的观测卫星产量数据.
- 采用动态表水模拟来建模地下水位.
- 综合作物模型模拟和机器学习分析,将地下水深度与产量联系起来.
主要成果:
- 在作物模型中改善了地下水的表现,提高了产量模拟的准确性.
- 机器学习确定了玉米的最佳地下水深区域 (1.1-2.5米),上面和下面都有负面影响.
- 具有最佳地下水的地点表现出更大的产量稳定性,在理想条件下平均产量增加3.4%.
结论:
- 浅的地下水为美国玉米带的玉米提供了显著的收益和稳定性.
- 在干旱条件下,地下水的积极影响得到了放大,突出了其在气候变化适应中的作用.
- 精确量化动态地下水位对于理解和管理农业生产率至关重要.
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