在未来气候变化下,横跨退缩的北极生物群的宽叶树的潜在迁移路径
Jacqueline Souza Lima1,2,3, Jonathan Lenoir4, Kristoffer Hylander1,2
1Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Global change biology
|August 27, 2024
概括
气候变化正在推动瑞典的树种向北扩散. 最低温度是关键,模型预测复杂的范围转移,特别是在东海岸和西北山谷.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 森林科学 森林科学 森林科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在导致物种分布的极移,影响森林生态系统.
- 树木是具有重要的生态和社会经济重要性的关键物种.
- 了解未来的树种分布对于林业和保护中的适应策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据未来的气候变化情景,预测瑞典七种宽叶树种在未来向北扩张的可能性.
- 为了确定影响树种分布的关键环境变量,树种分布在它们的北极范围的极限.
- 生成高分辨率地图,以告知森林适应和生物多样性保护工作.
主要方法:
- 在瑞典 (55-68°N) 全面安装50米分辨率的生理学上知情的息地适宜性模型 (HSM).
- 利用各种未来气候变化场景和时间段进行预测.
- 分析环境变量的影响,重点关注最低温度.
主要成果:
- 最低温度被确定为宽叶树种在寒冷极限分布的最关键变量.
- 预计2100年的范围扩张模式显示出复杂的,特定物种的动态.
- 一个常见的模式是沿着东海岸向北扩张,然后通过山谷迁移到西北地区.
结论:
- 高分辨率的HSM为树种在前沿的范围转移动态提供了宝贵的见解.
- 该研究强调了瑞典西北部适合宽叶树向北扩张的特定地区.
- 调查结果支持积极的转移战略,以适应气候变化的森林和生物多样性.
相关概念视频
Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
25.2K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
25.2K
Threats to Biodiversity
22.2K
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
22.2K
Global Climate Change
24.3K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.3K
Responses to Drought and Flooding
10.6K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
10.6K
Migration
7.9K
Migration is long-range, seasonal movement from one region or habitat to another. This common strategy, carried out by many different organisms around the world, is an adaptive response that typically corresponds to changes in an organism’s environment, like resource availability or climate. Migrations can involve huge groups of thousands of animals as well as single individuals traveling alone and can range from thousands of kilometers to just a few hundred meters.
7.9K
Ecological Succession
17.2K
Ecological succession is influenced by the processes of facilitation, inhibition, and toleration. Facilitation occurs when early successional species create more favorable ecological conditions for subsequent species, such as enhanced nutrient, water, or light availability. In contrast, inhibition happens when early successional species create unfavorable ecological conditions for potential successive species, such as limiting resource availability. In some cases, later successional species...
17.2K


