非最佳的退休人员决策的福利成本
Harun Aydilek1, Asiye Aydilek2
1College of Integral Studies, Abdullah Al Salem University, Khaldiya, Kuwait.
PloS one
|August 27, 2024
概括
退休人员面临社会福利费用从非最佳的财务决策. 优先考虑消费和住房选择而不是股票/债券分配,可以将这些成本降到最低,仅债券投资是最不有害的单一资产策略.
科学领域:
- 退休金融资 退休金融资 退休金融资
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 决策理论 决策理论
背景情况:
- 退休人员经常做出不理想的财务决策,影响他们的福利.
- 了解这些福利成本对于财务规划和政策至关重要.
- 现有的模型可能无法完全捕捉退休人员的偏好和决策的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 调查退休人员做出的各种非最佳决策的福利成本.
- 分析住房,消费和资产配置选择的影响.
- 为了比较不同的实用模型来解释退休人员的投资行为.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个新的分析和数值框架,将递归实用与住房结合起来.
- 包括预期效用和递归效用,不包括住房作为特殊情况.
- 检查了与股票和债券投资不足/过度投资,市场参与以及消费/住房决策相关的福利成本.
主要成果:
- 低投资股票的福利成本低于过度投资.
- 低于最佳的债券配置比类似的股票错误配置带来更高的成本.
- 避开债券市场比避开股票市场更有害.
- 仅投资债券的成本低于仅投资股票的成本.
- 过度消费住房的成本低于低消费.
- 低于最佳的消费决策造成了最高的福利成本.
- 消费,住房和储蓄决策比流动资产配置更为关键.
- 与预期效用模型相比,递归效用模型更好地反映了退休人员对债券而不是股票的偏好.
结论:
- 退休人员的福利受到消费和住房决策的重大影响,而不是在股票和债券之间分配流动储蓄.
- 政策制定者和学者应该专注于改善消费和住房方面的决策,以提高退休人员的福利.
- 递归实用框架提供了一个更准确的代表退休人员的财务行为,特别是关于债券偏好.
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