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在气候变化下预测 Ixodes pacificus 的潜在全球分布

Fengfeng Li¹, Qunzheng Mu², Delong Ma²

¹School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, People's Republic of China.

|August 27, 2024

概括

最大模型 (MaxEnt) 预测了 Ixodes pacificus 的未来全球分布. 关键的气候因素,如2月最低气温影响其范围,可能会发生变化,但涉及类似的地区,突出突出侵略风险.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
环境科学环境科学
流行病学流行病学

背景情况:

太平洋 (I. pacificus) 是一个重要的载体.
了解它的分布对于公共卫生和监测至关重要.
预测气候变化带来的范围变化对于主动管理至关重要.

研究的目的:

在未来的气候场景下预测I. pacificus的全球潜在分布.
确定影响其分布的关键气候因素.
为了告知从被动向主动载体监测的过渡.

主要方法:

使用最大 (MaxEnt) 模型进行分布预测.
使用ENMtools和ArcGIS选了563个全球分布数据点.
使用R软件分析气候变量,重点关注贡献率和相关性.

主要成果:

马克森特模型表现出高精度 (AUC = 0.978).
2月份的最低温度 (Tmin2) 和1月份的降水 (Prec1) 是影响最大的气候变量.
在北美,南美,欧洲,大洋洲和亚洲发现了潜在的合适地区,在未来情景下预计下降趋势.

结论:

太平洋的分布范围是动态的,受到特定气候因素的影响.
未来的气候场景表明适合区域的收缩,尽管主要地区仍然参与其中.
需要在潜在的合适地区更加关注I. pacificus的入侵风险.

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