医学创新的评价 处理不确定性和风险
Mark Nuijten1,2, Stefano Capri3
1A2M, 1546 Lg Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Journal of market access & health policy
|August 28, 2024
概括
投资者可以通过调整资本成本或使用可接受度曲线来管理孤儿疾病研发项目的不确定性. 这种方法有助于对罕见疾病的医疗创新进行经济估值.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 金融建模金融建模
- 制药研发领域的研发工作.
背景情况:
- 医疗创新研发项目对孤儿疾病的经济估值提出了独特的挑战.
- 不确定性是影响罕见病药物开发投资决策的关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 概述处理孤儿疾病医疗创新研发项目的经济估值不确定性的方法.
- 提供投资者的观点来评估这些高风险,高回报的项目.
主要方法:
- 描述孤儿药物现金流 (销售额,成本,失败概率) 和资本成本的特定不确定性.
- 对孤儿药物和非孤儿药物的净当前值 (NPV) 和标准偏差进行比较.
- 使用可接受度曲线和资本资产定价模型 (CAPM) 的概率灵敏度分析 (PSA).
主要成果:
- 投资者通过要求更高的资本成本来融入不确定性.
- 可接受度曲线提供了对NPV结果的概率观点.
- 资本成本本身的不确定性可以使用CAPM进行建模.
结论:
- 存在各种方法来解决孤儿疾病创新的经济估值的不确定性.
- 将健康经济学与经济估值理论相结合,为投资者估值提供了一种新的方法.
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