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Updated: Jun 15, 2025

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使用探索性建模来挑战墨西哥城风险治理的叙述
Hallie Eakin1, Luis A Bojórquez-Tapia2, Yosune Miquelajauregui2
1School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-7904.
概括
转变风险治理中占主导地位的叙述是可持续适应的关键. 这项研究使用了墨西哥城的动态模型.
科学领域:
- 适应社会环境变化 适应社会环境变化
- 风险治理和叙事分析
- 城市社会水文学
背景情况:
- 可持续的适应需要改变风险治理叙述.
- 主导叙述将信念和解决方案嵌入到基础设施中,掩盖了替代方案.
- 蒙面的替代方案可以延续不可持续的治理.
研究的目的:
- 展示墨西哥城社会水文风险的动态探索模型.
- 为了内源化和挑战占主导地位的水风险治理叙述.
- 揭示叙事如何影响脆弱性和适应性.
主要方法:
- 在城市和市区尺度上对主导叙述进行定性数据分析.
- 开发一种基于代理的模型,并与水文,城市化和气候模型相结合.
- 创建探索性治理场景,以挑战主导叙述.
主要成果:
- 主导叙述可以使脆弱性热点永久化,尽管公平目标.
- 探索性建模使叙述变得可见,挑战了先前的假设.
- 场景突出了由于主导叙述导致的脆弱性的持久性.
结论:
- 通过探索性建模使叙述可见,促进对假设的质疑.
- 意识到跨部门合作的必要性对于管理至关重要.
- 这种方法为可持续治理的潜在管理策略提供了洞察力.
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