气候变暖对世界上最大的海洋生态热带生物的能源和息地的影响
Samantha D Reynolds1, Craig E Franklin2, Bradley M Norman3
1School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; ECOCEAN Inc., 162/3 Powell Rd, Coogee, WA, Australia; Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA, Australia.
The Science of the total environment
|August 28, 2024
概括
气候变暖将增加鱼 (Rhincodon typus) 的能量需求,并改变它们的息地适合性,因为海面温度上升和食物供应减少. 需要进一步的研究,以了解特定种群的热容忍度,并完善分布模型.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
- 气候变化生态学 气候变化生态学
- 种类分布建模 种类分布建模
背景情况:
- 有机体对气候变暖的反应有所变化,影响了物种分布.
- 海洋内热生物,如鱼 (Rhincodon typus),对海面温度 (SST) 的变化很敏感.
- 目前预测鱼范围变化的模型不考虑热极限或能量影响的物种内部变化.
研究的目的:
- 调查预计的SST和动物浮游生物质变化对鱼能量平衡和息地适宜性的综合影响.
- 为了比较使用全物种模型与包含区域变异的模型的息地预测.
- 突出需要考虑物种分布模型中的物种内变异.
主要方法:
- 利用了111条来自印度洋的鱼运动轨迹.
- 在三个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下使用的合模型对比项目第6阶段地球系统模型.
- 分析了SST和动物浮游生物质的预测变化,以及它们对鱼能量和息地的影响.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,SST将增加高达4.9°C,并减少动物浮游生物质.
- 鱼的能量需求增加,因为在温暖的水域中代谢率升高.
- 整个物种和区域变异模型之间的预测适合息地范围的显著差异.
结论:
- 气候变化对鱼构成双重威胁,通过增加代谢需求和减少食物供应.
- 传统的物种分布模型可能会低估影响,因为它们不考虑局部适应和物种内部变化.
- 进一步研究鱼的热耐受性和能量是准确的保护和管理战略的关键.
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