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对陆地碳流量的一致预算
Lea Dorgeist1, Clemens Schwingshackl2, Selma Bultan1
1Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, Germany.
Nature communications
|August 28, 2024
概括
准确的碳预算需要对土地利用变化 (ELUC) 和陆地二氧化碳沉积点 (SLAND) 的二氧化碳排放进行一致的估计. 这项研究揭示了较弱的净土地沉没,使得碳中和更难实现.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学 地球和环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 准确的碳预算对于实现"巴黎协定"目标至关重要.
- 目前对土地利用变化 (ELUC) 和陆地二氧化碳汇 (SLAND) 的二氧化碳排放估计在概念上是不一致的.
- 这些差异源于不同模型将二氧化碳流量归因于环境和土地利用变化.
研究的目的:
- 为ELUC和SLAND提供一致的估计.
- 将对土地碳的环境影响纳入一个空间显式的会计模式.
- 重新评估净土地沉降的强度及其对碳中和性的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一个空间显式的会计模式.
- 对土地碳动态的环境影响的整合.
- 对陆地碳流的基于工艺的最新模型进行比较.
主要成果:
- 最先进的模型高估了2012年到2021年的陆地二氧化碳吸收量 (SLAND) 超过23% (833%).
- 土地利用变化 (ELUC) 的排放量在2012年2021年被低估了14% (823%).
- 鉴定出一个较弱的净陆地水槽,这增加了实现碳中和的挑战.
结论:
- 对于准确的碳预算来说,对陆地碳流的一致估计至关重要.
- 目前的模型可能高估了由于历史生态系统退化而造成的土地沉的容量.
- 实现净零排放目标需要采取更加雄心勃勃的方法,考虑到修订后的碳预算.
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