到本世纪中叶达到千兆规模的二氧化碳储存的可行性
Yuting Zhang1, Christopher Jackson2, Samuel Krevor2
1Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London, UK. yuting.zhang16@imperial.ac.uk.
Nature communications
|August 28, 2024
概括
全球碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 的可行性被高估了. 一个新的模型显示,到2050年,每年最多可产生16 GtCO2,其中美国的贡献率为60%,与IPCC的预测不同.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学 地球和环境科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 地质碳封存地质碳封存
背景情况:
- 政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 第六次评估报告预计有大量的地下碳储存能力.
- 然而,这些预测可能无法充分考虑地质,地理和技术经济方面的限制.
- 扩大二氧化碳 (CO2) 储存的规模需要对这些局限性有充分的了解.
研究的目的:
- 评估全球扩大二氧化碳储存能力的可行性.
- 确定 CO2 储存部署的潜在地质,地理和技术经济限制.
- 为全球二氧化碳储存预测提供一个更现实的基准.
主要方法:
- 为二氧化碳储存开发一个地理上解决的增长模型.
- 在模型中包括与地质和扩展速度相关的约束.
- 模型输出与IPCC预测的比较.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,全球最大二氧化碳储存率为每年16 GtCO2,严重依赖美国 (60%的贡献).
- 对于中国,印度尼西亚和韩国的IPCC预测似乎高估了储存可行性.
- 一个可行的基准表明,全球储存率为每年5-6 GtCO2,而美国的贡献约为每年1 GtCO2.
结论:
- 当前全球二氧化碳储存预测可能过于乐观.
- 地质和扩大规模的约束极大地影响了可实现的碳捕获率.
- 为了有效的气候变化缓解战略,需要对二氧化碳储存进行修订,更现实的基准.
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