异常的低级地震发生在大级地震之前
Társilo Girona1, Kyriaki Drymoni2
1Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA. tarsilo.girona@alaska.edu.
Nature communications
|August 28, 2024
概括
研究人员发现了一种新方法来检测地震前体. 在加利福尼亚州和阿拉斯加大地震发生前几周到几个月的异常地震活动表明了对地震预警系统的新方法.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 地震科学 地震科学 地震科学
背景情况:
- 预测破坏性的地震对于了解地球地和发出地震警告至关重要.
- 虽然地震前兆往往含糊不清,但最近的研究表明潜在的短期预警信号.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定可靠的,短期的预兆信号大地震事件.
- 调查观察到的前体地震活动背后的物理机制.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种算法,将随机森林机器学习和来自地震目录的统计特征集成在一起.
- 分析了来自2019年加利福尼亚州里奇克雷斯特和2018年阿拉斯加州安克雷奇地震序列的区域级地震数据.
- 利用有限元素固体力学模型来模拟故障行为和应力变化.
主要成果:
- 在2019年里奇克雷斯特和2018年安克雷奇地震之前,识别了长达三个月的异常,低级地震.
- 观察到这种前体动荡蔓延到重要的区域 (15-25%的南加州和南中部阿拉斯加).
结论:
- 不正常的低级地震可能表明,大断层段接近故障的孔液压升级和区域应力场变化.
- 开发的方法和发现为地震监测机构提供了一个新的视角,可以提前几周到几个月预测大地震.
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