一个三十年的时间序列分析确定了炭病爆发和印度卡纳塔克邦厄尔尼诺的振荡之间的连贯性
Mohammed Mudassar Chanda1, Lindsay Campbell2, Henry Walke3
1ICAR-National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Informatics (NIVEDI), Ramagondanahalli, Yelahanka, Post Box-6450, Bengaluru, Karnataka, 560064, India. chandamudassar@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|August 28, 2024
概括
印度卡纳塔克邦的炭病爆发与降雨和海面温度 (SST) 异常有关. 了解这些气候因素有助于预测和控制这种动物传播疾病.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 炭,由Bacillus anthracis引起的动物性疾病,是印度卡纳塔克邦的特有病,影响牲畜和人类的健康.
- 量化气候在炭病爆发中的作用对于开发预测模型和有效控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查畜牧炭病爆发与卡纳塔克邦的气象变量/海面温度 (SST) 异常之间的相关性和一致性.
- 建立贝叶斯时间序列回归模型来量化这些关系,并为公共卫生监测提供信息.
主要方法:
- 对炭病爆发 (1987-2016) 和气象数据的时间序列分析.
- 使用了交叉相关性,光谱分析 (微波,经验模式分解) 和贝叶斯回归模型.
- 分析的重点是确定降雨和雨天频率的滞后影响,以及SST异常的周期性.
主要成果:
- 每月的炭病爆发与降雨滞后和雨天频率增加有积极的关联.
- 在炭病爆发中确定了长期周期性 (6-8年),与SST异常周期性相关.
- 减少SST异常与炭病爆发数量的增加有关.
结论:
- 气候变量,特别是降雨量和SST异常,显著影响了卡纳塔克邦炭病爆发的时间动态.
- 研究结果支持开发长期炭病预测和控制策略,包括有针对性的疫苗接种计划.
- 更好的理解可以减少经济损失,并防止人类的炭病溢出.
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