经验证据表明,多个十年的短暂因素影响了地测速场,并推导出意大利的地震性预测
Michele M C Carafa1, Peter Bird2, Alessandro Verdecchia3
1Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, L'Aquila, Italy. michele.carafa@ingv.it.
地测应变率可能无法准确预测长期的地震率,因为时间的变化. 最近的地震与应变率峰值相关,这表明粘弹性放松影响了地震危险评估.
科学领域:
- 地球科学 地球科学 地球科学
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
背景情况:
- 地震危险分析通常假设静止的地震间负载率,这些负载率取决于地质学应变率.
- 这种假设认为,上层地的应力积累与地质应变速率成正比.
研究的目的:
- 批判性地检查地质应变率的可靠性,以预测意大利等缓慢变形地区的长期地震率.
- 质疑在地震间时期地质应变速率的时间静止性假设.
主要方法:
- 基于地质应变率,分析历史地震中心 (过去60-120年) 与预测未来地震率高的地区之间的相关性.
- 2009年拉奎拉地震 (Mw 6.3) 的案例研究,以调查粘弹性放松对地质测量的影响.
主要成果:
- 在最近的地震中心和预测的高地震率区域之间发现了明显的相关性.
- 这种相关性在较老的地震中较弱,表明时间变化.
- 拉奎拉地震后的粘弹性放松显著改变了几十年来基准测量,解释了最近的地震集群.
结论:
- 地测数据用于地震预测必须考虑两部分地应力积累:静止的构造变形和暂时的粘弹性放松.
- 需要进行方法上的转变,以便将测量测量测量的长期时间变化纳入地震危险评估中.
- 承认这种变异性可以增强地理测量衍生的地震预报所提供的见解.
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