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人口周期的气候驱动的上下文依赖的结构.

Noelle I Samia1, Osnat Stramer2, Takashi Saitoh3

  • 1Department of Statistics and Data Science, Northwestern University, 2006 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208, USA.

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小哺乳动物种群周期受温度和动物社区结构的影响. 日本灰面的多年种群动态揭示了与动物社区复杂性相关的温度驱动周期.

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科学领域:

  • 人口生物学 人口生物学
  • 生态动力学 生态动力学
  • 时间序列分析时间序列分析.

背景情况:

  • 小哺乳动物的多年种群周期是种群生物学研究的一个关键领域.
  • 了解这些周期的驱动因素对于预测人口动态至关重要.
  • 在日本的灰面 (Myodes rufocanus) 呈现出复杂的种群波动.

研究的目的:

  • 通过自回归 (AR) 时间序列分析,研究灰面的多年种群周期.
  • 确定温度和动物群体结构对鸟群体动态的影响.
  • 探索AR结构,环境因素和人口周期之间的关系.

主要方法:

  • 多维自回归 (AR) 时间序列建模的应用.
  • 对日本灰面的监测数据的分析.
  • 种群动态,温度和动物群体组成之间的相关性分析.

主要成果:

  • 温度通过影响动物群体结构,显著影响鸟群体动态.
  • 简单动物群落中的飞种群表现出2-3年的AR(2) 周期.
  • 在复杂的群体中,飞的动态遵循一个AR(4) 过程,有组合周期,受温暖的冬季影响,导致数量下降.

结论:

  • 种群的AR结构在空间上有所变化,与温度和动物群体的复杂性有关.
  • 温暖的冬季与AR群体中飞丰度的下降有关.
  • 调查结果提供了关于北半球动物数量下降趋势的见解,突出了气候和社区结构的相互作用.