老年男性的跌倒轨迹:年龄变化轨迹和未来跌倒风险预测器
Crystal Guo1,2, Kristine E Ensrud3,4, Jane A Cauley5
1School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA.
概括
这项研究确定了老年男性的两种高风险跌倒轨迹:急剧增加和持续高跌倒风险. 基线特征可以预测未来的跌倒风险,有助于早期干预策略.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 在老龄化人口中对纵向下降模式的理解有限.
- 在男性骨质疏松性骨折研究 (MrOS) 提供了一个强大的队列调查跌倒轨迹.
- 识别明显的下降模式对于有针对性的干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了将老年男性分类为随着时间的推移而形成的明显的下降轨迹.
- 确定与不同跌倒风险组相关的基线预测因素.
- 为老年男性预防跌倒的策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用了基于15年的MrOS参与者5976名秋季数据的基于小组的轨迹建模.
- 评估了基线特征和轨迹组分配之间的关联.
- 使用后勤回归来比较高风险与低风险的摔倒群体.
主要成果:
- 确定了5种不同的跌落轨迹,其中2种被归类为高风险 (急剧增加和持续高跌落风险).
- 模型匹配是合理的,所有轨迹的后方概率很高.
- 基线预测因素包括体重指数,中枢神经元,糖尿病,帕金森病,背痛,握力和健康评分.
结论:
- 在老年男性中发现了两种高风险的跌倒轨迹.
- 预测基线特征表明,跌倒风险可以及早识别.
- 调查结果支持主动下降风险评估和干预策略.
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