在深度不确定性下的海洋黄昏区,模拟渔业和碳捕获生态系统服务
Maartje Oostdijk1, Laura G Elsler2, Julie Van Deelen3
1Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Agricultural University of Iceland, Keldnaholt, Árleynir 22, 112, Reykjavík, Iceland. maartjeoostdijk@gmail.com.
Ambio
|August 29, 2024
概括
捕捞用于水产养殖料的半层鱼类存在风险. 由于鱼群动态和生态系统影响的不确定性,需要采取预防措施来保护碳捕获,避免气候变化带来的高成本.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 渔业管理 渔业管理 渔业管理
背景情况:
- 中层鱼类在生物碳中发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 越来越多的人对水产养殖料生产中半鱼的兴趣.
- 与气候和食物网相互作用的半地带存在重大不确定性,这给政策带来了挑战.
研究的目的:
- 调查中性收获配额政策的后果.
- 为了建模中鱼渔业的社会生态影响.
- 为制定有关中层层资源利用的政策决策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 动态社会生态建模方法.
- 系统动态和全球敏感性分析.
- 参与式建模以纳入利益相关者的知识.
主要成果:
- 介质鱼群动态的不确定性显著影响模拟结果.
- 优先考虑渔业发展而不是环境保护,增加了气候变化的社会成本.
- 对海洋碳捕获的潜在影响是巨大的.
结论:
- 预防性方法对于发展半鱼类渔业至关重要.
- 需要进一步的研究,以减少介质生态系统动态的不确定性.
- 经济利益与环境保护之间的平衡对于可持续的半层海洋资源管理至关重要.
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