在内罗毕市县长期爆发的霍乱疫情加剧了大规模集会活动,肯尼亚,2017年
Philip Ngere1,2, Daniel Langat2, Isaac Ngere1
1Washington State University Global Health Program, Nairobi City, Kenya.
PloS one
|August 29, 2024
概括
2017年在内罗毕爆发的一次霍乱疫情影响了2300多人,死亡率为1.5%. 男性或住院患者等因素增加了死亡风险,而门诊护理和5岁以上的年龄降低了死亡风险.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 霍乱疫情在全球范围内持续,特别是在低收入和中等收入国家,与水,环境卫生和卫生 (WASH) 基础设施不足有关.
- 肯尼亚内罗毕市县在2017年经历了严重的霍乱流行,突出了当前的公共卫生挑战.
研究的目的:
- 描述2017年在内罗毕市县长期爆发的霍乱疫情的流行病学.
- 在爆发期间确定与霍乱相关死亡率相关的因素.
主要方法:
- 对2017年内罗毕市县霍乱爆发线路清单的回顾性审查.
- 分析包括疑似和确诊的霍乱病例,根据症状和实验室确认 (Vibrio cholerae隔离) 定义病例.
- 统计分析使用几率比率 (OR) 与95%置信区间 (CI) 来评估人口统计,临床和疫情相关因素与死亡率之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 总共分析了2,347例霍乱病例,病例死亡率 (CFR) 为1.5% (35例死亡).
- 总体而言,该县的攻击率为每10万人中有50人,所有副县都报告了病例.
- 在34.8%的检测样本中发现了Ogawa的Vibrio cholerae,对四环素和勒沃素敏感,但对阿米卡辛有抗性.
- 与增加死亡几率相关的因素包括男性 (aOR:3.04) 和住院病人的身份.
- 与死亡几率降低相关的因素包括门诊病例 (aOR:0.35),年龄≥5岁 (aOR:0.21) 和与大规模聚会事件相关的因素 (aOR:0.26).
结论:
- 奈洛比市县在2017年面临广泛和长期的霍乱疫情,病例死亡率显著.
- 男性的性别,住院病人的身份,年轻的年龄,以及缺乏与大规模集会的联系是霍乱死亡率的风险因素.
- 调查结果强调需要改善WASH服务和有针对性的干预措施,以减轻霍乱在城市环境中的影响.
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