有没有水? 气候变化,住房需求以及加利福尼亚州未来的水需求
Tamara S Wilson1, Paul C Selmants1, Ryan M Boynton2
1U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, Moffett Field, CA, USA.
Journal of environmental management
|August 29, 2024
概括
加利福尼亚州加利福尼亚州加利福尼亚州
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候变化建模模型
背景情况:
- 加利福尼亚州中部海岸面临着由于气候变化和土地利用需求的增加而地下水的减少.
- 枯竭的地下水盆地是支持未来住房和农业需求的关键问题.
- 了解气候,土地利用和水资源的相互作用对于区域可持续性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估未来气候和土地利用变化对五个中部海岸县地下水平衡和水需求的影响.
- 在不同的气候场景 (温暖/潮湿,热/干燥) 和城市化路径下预测地下水的可用性.
- 评估预计的水需求与地下水可持续性目标之间的潜在冲突.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个空间显式的状态和过渡模拟模型,整合了气候,土地利用,水需求和地下水的增加-损失.
- 从基于水文过程的模型中整合了缩小规模的地下水充电预测.
- 利用城市增长和遥感数据进行城市化和农业需求预测.
主要成果:
- 预计地下水平衡下降,原因是充电量减少和农业需求增加,特别是在炎热/干燥气候下.
- 到2060年,在圣路易斯奥比斯波和蒙特利县,即使在温暖/潮湿的情景下,地下水总量也会大幅下降.
- 发现新的住房开发和相关的水需求与地下水可持续性目标不相冲突.
结论:
- 未来的气候变化和日益增长的农业需求对区域的水源安全和地下水的可用性构成重大威胁.
- 地下水供应可能不足以满足未来的需求,这可能会限制新住房的水供应.
- 气候影响,而不是新的住房,是该地区潜在的未来水资源短缺的主要驱动因素.
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