痴呆症预测多域风险因素的增量值:一种机器学习方法
Wei Ying Tan1, Carol Anne Hargreaves2, Gavin S Dawe3
1Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health (WYT, SH), National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.
概括
在老年人中预测痴呆风险通过将各种数据域添加到痴呆风险预测模型 (DRPM) 中得到了改进. 神经成像和临床史数据为不同类型的痴呆症提供了最重要的预测价值.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 在老年人中预测发生痴呆症对于及时干预至关重要.
- 目前关于痴呆风险预测模型 (DRPMs) 中各种预测域的增量值的证据有限.
研究的目的:
- 评估五个不同的预测领域 (临床/医疗史,问卷,认知,多基因风险,神经成像) 对简单的DRPM的附加值.
- 评估老年人所有原因痴呆症,阿尔茨海默病 (AD) 和血管痴呆症 (VaD) 的预测.
主要方法:
- 一项基于人口的前性队列研究,使用来自60岁以上没有痴呆症的英国生物库数据.
- 55个痴呆症预测因素被分为五个领域.
- 使用整体机器学习DRPM,通过曲线下的面积 (AUC) 变化和净重新分类指数 (NRI) 评估增量值.
主要成果:
- 一个简单的DRPM实现了0.711.11的AUC.
- 神经成像标志物显著改善了所有原因痴呆症 (∆AUC% +9.6%) 和AD (∆AUC% +16.5%) 的预测.
- 临床和病史数据最好地预测了VaD (∆AUC% +12.2%),同时结合临床/病史和问卷数据提高了ML DRPM的表现.
结论:
- 整合来自多个领域的预测因素通常可以提高DRPM性能.
- 神经成像提供了高的预测准确性,但可能存在可访问性限制.
- 预测因素的战略选择是必不可少的,平衡预测能力与实际考虑.
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