溪流流动趋势和洪水频率分析:英国的区域研究
Fabio Di Nunno1, Giovanni de Marinis1, Francesco Granata2
1Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering (DICEM), University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via Di Biasio, 43, 03043, Cassino, Frosinone, Italy.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|August 30, 2024
概括
气候变化正在改变英国的河流流量,许多河流呈现着增加的趋势,特别是在苏格兰和英格兰北部. 分析揭示了复杂的水文反应和区域差异,影响水资源管理.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 环境监测和环境分析
背景情况:
- 气候变化对地表水体的影响,需要对水资源管理进行流量趋势分析.
- 了解水文变化对于有效的规划和适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查英国18条河流的区域流量趋势.
- 用曼-肯达尔测试分析每月和每年溪流和降雨趋势.
- 用创新趋势分析和通用极端值分布来评估流量流动的变化和极端趋势.
主要方法:
- 增强的曼-肯达尔 (MK) 测试,用于月度和年度降雨和溪流流动趋势.
- 创新趋势分析 (ITA) 用于流量流速变化.
- 一般化极端值 (GEV) 分布适用于年度最大流量和洪水频率分析.
主要成果:
- 在苏格兰中南部和英格兰北部的河流中观察到统计学上显著的积极流量趋势,在1月和每年显著增加 (例如,Ballathie的Tay,Friars Carse的Nith).
- ITA显示了高流量速率的变化,一些河流呈现出积极的趋势,而另一些则呈现出消极的趋势 (例如,英格沃斯的Bure,科尔威克的Trent).
- 对几条英国河流的GEV分析表明,洪水频率和位置参数趋势不断增加,Ballathie的泰河显示出最明显的增加,而特伦特河则略有下降.
结论:
- 该研究揭示了气候变化影响英国河流流动力学的显著区域差异.
- 对MK,ITA和GEV方法的比较显示了一致性和差异性,突出了水文反应的复杂性和方法的局限性.
- 整合多样化的分析方法对于全面了解不断变化的流量模式和改进水资源管理策略至关重要.
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