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相关概念视频

Global Climate Change01:50

Global Climate Change

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Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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What is Climate?01:16

What is Climate?

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Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
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Prediction Intervals01:03

Prediction Intervals

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The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y. 
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Predicting Reaction Outcomes02:24

Predicting Reaction Outcomes

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Kinetics describes the rate and path by which a reaction occurs. In contrast, thermodynamics deals with state functions and describes the properties, behavior, and components of a system. It is not concerned with the path taken by the process and cannot address the rate at which a reaction occurs. Although it does provide information about what can happen during a reaction process, it does not describe the detailed steps of what appears on an atomic or a molecular level. On the other hand,...
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Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment01:17

Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment

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Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
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End Point Prediction: Gran Plot01:07

End Point Prediction: Gran Plot

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A Gran plot is used to predict the equivalence volume or endpoint of a potentiometric or acid-base titration without reaching the endpoint. Typically, titration data is collected as a function of the titrant's volume up to a point less than the equivalence volume and then transformed into a linear format. The straight line is extended to the x-axis, indicating the necessary titrant volume to achieve the equivalence point.
For potentiometric titration, the Gran plot is created by plotting...
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相关实验视频

Updated: Jun 14, 2025

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model

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气候风险的联合结果预测市场.

Mark S Roulston1,2, Kim Kaivanto2,3

  • 1Economics and Policy Institute, Land, Environment, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom.

PloS one
|August 30, 2024
PubMed
概括

预测市场可以通过同时预测温室气体排放和温度来预测气候风险. 这些市场汇总了专家的判断,使气候变化政策和规划更加可信.

科学领域:

  • 气候科学 气候科学
  • 环境经济学环境经济学
  • 计算社会科学 计算社会科学

背景情况:

  • 气候变化预测需要跨学科的专业知识,必须考虑到政策驱动的反循环 (循环).
  • 长期气候预测面临信息不对称,阻碍用户对提供商记录的信任.
  • 现有的预测方法在聚合各种专家知识和解决预测循环性方面扎.

研究的目的:

  • 探索使用具有共同成果空间的预测市场来应对气候变化预测方面的挑战.
  • 测试细分预测市场的可行性,以汇总有关气候变量的专家判断.

主要方法:

  • 设计了预测市场,提供了共同结果空间,用于同时预测温室气体 (GHG) 度和温度.
  • 实施了每月英国降雨量和温度的颗粒市场,以测试聚合能力.
  • 在市场结构中利用专家判断来模拟现实世界的预测场景.

主要成果:

  • 证明预测市场可以有效地汇集具有相关气候科学和政策专业知识的专家的判断.
  • 验证了在复杂的预测任务中使用高度细致的,联合结果预测市场的可行性.
  • 展示了这些市场在气候预测中克服信息不对称性和循环性问题的潜力.

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结论:

  • 具有共同成果空间的预测市场为产生可靠的气候变化预测提供了有希望的机制.
  • 这些市场可以支持基于证据的政策制定,风险评估和应对气候相关挑战的战略规划.
  • 未来的应用可能涉及全球气候风险和政策相关情景的长期市场.