通过机器学习方法预测医疗和牙科诊所关闭的预测因素:使用实证数据进行横截面研究
Young-Taek Park1, Donghan Kim2, Ji Soo Jeon3
1HIRA Research Institute, Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service, Wonju-si, Republic of Korea.
Journal of medical Internet research
|August 30, 2024
概括
机器学习可以准确地预测医疗和牙科诊所的关闭情况,识别关键因素,如运营年数和患者数量. 这些预测模型可以帮助防止不必要的设施关闭.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
背景情况:
- 小诊所对于社区医疗保健的获取至关重要.
- 预测诊所关闭有助于医疗保健资源分配.
- 有限的研究存在于机器学习的临床关闭预测.
研究的目的:
- 用机器学习评估预测医疗和牙科诊所 (MC和DC) 关闭的可行性.
- 确定影响MC和DC关闭的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 2020-2021年期间运营和关闭的诊所的医疗保险行政数据.
- 员工倾向性得分匹配用于病例控制选择.
- 应用后勤回归,支持向量机,随机森林和极端梯度提升模型.
- 通过变量重要性和顺序特征选择提取了关键预测变量.
主要成果:
- 支持向量机 (AUC 0.762) 和随机森林 (AUC 0.736) 是最好的预测MC关闭.
- 极端梯度增强 (AUC 0.700) 和随机森林 (AUC 0.687) 是最好的DC关闭预测.
- 运营多年,人口增长和人口规模是MC关闭的关键因素.
- 患者数量,患者体积变化和经营年数是DC关闭的关键因素.
结论:
- 机器学习为预测小型医疗机构关闭提供了一种中度准确的方法.
- 影响关闭的因素在医疗和牙科诊所之间有很大差异.
- 开发预测模型可以帮助预防全国范围内不必要的诊所关闭.
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