在中国前性队列研究中,通过一个模型预测口腔和食道癌症
Ping Chen1, Wenting Zhao2, Sicong Wang2
1Central Laboratory, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Zhejiang University Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China.
Preventive medicine
|August 30, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一个新的口腔和食道癌的预测模型,使用12个常见的风险因素. 该模型准确地识别了这些上部胃肠道癌症的高风险个体.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 口腔和食道癌是常见的上部胃肠道恶性瘤.
- 现有的风险预测模型通常只关注一种癌症类型,缺乏统一的方法.
- 需要为两种癌症提供同时预测模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的风险预测模型,用于口腔和食道癌.
- 为了确定这两种癌症的共同重大风险因素.
主要方法:
- 一组431,460名没有癌症病史的受试者被跟踪平均7.3年.
- 用单变量和多变量COX回归分析来确定预测因素.
- 模型的性能是使用差别精度,Harrell的C指数和校准来评估的.
主要成果:
- 使用12个显著变量 (例如年龄,性别,酒精,,吸烟) 构建了考克斯回归模型.
- 该模型实现了曲线下的面积 (AUC) 为0.82.
- C指数为0.807,表明了良好的分辨准确性和校准.
结论:
- 鉴定出了12种口腔和食道癌症的重要常见风险因素.
- 成功开发了一种单一的,表现良好的口腔和食道癌的预测模型.
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