在中国不断变化的环境下,南都河的盐水入
Yimei Wang1, Yi Zou1, Yanhu He2
1College of Ecology and Environment, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China.
Marine pollution bulletin
|August 31, 2024
概括
流水变化和海平面上升显著影响南都河的盐水入侵. 增加的变异性最初减少了盐度,而海平面上升加剧了入侵,预测未来的下游变化.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学 水文学
- 沿海工程 沿海工程
背景情况:
- 水入南都河是一个越来越令人担忧的问题.
- 排水变化 (RV) 对盐水入侵的影响尚不清楚.
- 了解这些动态对于沿海管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析流水和海平面的长期趋势.
- 量化排水变化和海平面上升对盐度超标率 (Ps) 的影响.
- 为了预测盐水入侵的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 曼-肯达尔测试和泰尔-森估计用于趋势分析.
- MIKE 11 模型和每日流水数据用于计算盐度超值率 (Ps).
- 分析历史数据和未来预测.
主要成果:
- 增加的流水变异性对Ps产生了不同的影响,在16.0公里下降,在23.2公里上升.
- 海平面上升0.4米导致了最大的Ps增加20.5公里 (11.7%).
- 预计到2060年代和2100年代,恒定Ps的部分将向下游移动,并显著增加Ps.
结论:
- 排水变化和海平面上升是盐水入侵的关键驱动因素.
- 由于RV和SL导致的Ps变化的比率大约为0.85.
- 恒定Ps段作为评估河口盐水入侵风险的有价值指标.
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