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水转移有助于水资源管理:为黄河流域未来的水分配减轻危机
Cheng-Yao Zhang1,2, Taikan Oki1
1Department of Civil Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan.
iScience
|September 2, 2024
概括
黄河流域未来的水资源分配显示了持续的中游需求增长和下游赤字. 盆地间的水转移是解决水争端和满足未来需求的关键.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 环境规划 环境规划
背景情况:
- 优化水分配对于像黄河这样的大河流域的水资源规划至关重要.
- 由于盆地间的水转移而改变供水模式,需要改进的水分配策略.
研究的目的:
- 预测黄河流域内省级未来的部门用水需求.
- 使用多目标模型进行未来的水分配.
- 为水资源管理的政策制定提供信息,并建立未来的分配模式.
主要方法:
- 省级不同部门的未来水需求预测.
- 应用一个多目标分配模型,用于未来的水分配.
- 分析水转移在满足预计需求中的作用.
主要成果:
- 研究项目继续到2050年"中游需求增加,下游水资源短缺".
- 未来的需求结构表明每个省份对水资源的潜在部门竞争.
- 据预计,在2030年,盆地间的水转移将满足需求的19.8%,在2050年达到34.5%.
结论:
- 水转移被认为是缓解黄河流域水争端的关键解决方案.
- 这些发现为制定水资源管理政策提供了科学基础.
- 建立了一个明确的未来分配模式,从资源到每个省份的部门.
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