基于风险评估,以半监督学习为导向以人为中心的灾难避难所规划
Yucheng Zhu1, Lu Gan1, Xianglong Li1
1College of Architecture and Urban_Rural Planning, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611830, China.
Heliyon
|September 2, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一种新的两阶段方法,用于山区的山体滑坡风险评估和紧急避难所规划. 它平衡了政府的目标与居民在气候相关灾害期间改善公共安全的需求.
科学领域:
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
- 地质科学 地质科学
- 风险分析 风险分析
背景情况:
- 与气候有关的灾害,特别是山体滑坡,在全球范围内构成重大威胁,特别是在中国的山区.
- 有效的紧急避难所建设和疏散路线设计对于公共安全和减轻居民影响至关重要.
- 现有的方法往往无法充分平衡各种利益相关者在灾难准备方面的需求.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的,以人为中心的,两阶段方法,用于评估山体滑坡危险和紧急避难所规划.
- 将利益相关者理论,风险经济学和公共选择理论整合到一个全面的框架中.
- 优化与政府目标一致的庇护计划,同时最大限度地提高居民满意度.
主要方法:
- 第一个阶段:土地滑坡危险评估模型,使用利益相关者理论和风险经济学结合弱势群体.
- 第二阶段:双层多重目标规划 (BLMOP) 模型,以协调冲突的政府和居民目标.
- 应用一个案例研究在巴州镇,中国,利用现场数据.
主要成果:
- 危险评估模型有效地分类了山体滑坡点,区分了风险水平 (35.71%高风险,64.29%低风险).
- BLMOP模型产生了多个帕雷托最佳庇护计划,证明了政府目标和居民满意度之间的平衡.
- 提出的方法在生成特定的环境,优化住房解决方案方面被证明是有效的.
结论:
- 这种以人为中心的两阶段方法提供了一个强大的框架,以平衡土地滑坡灾害管理中利益相关者的需求.
- 这种方法通过考虑风险评估和社会经济因素来提高紧急庇护计划的有效性.
- 经过验证的案例研究证实了拟议的优化框架的实际适用性和有效性.
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