在CMIP6情景下,Hemileia vastatrix在阿拉伯咖啡中的未来气候适应性
Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido1, Guilherme Botega Torsoni2, João Antonio Lorençone2
1Federal Institute of Sul de Minas Gerais, Muzambinho, Brazil.
Journal of the science of food and agriculture
|September 2, 2024
概括
咖啡叶生对巴西咖啡生产构成重大威胁. 目前的气候条件有利于在近一半的分析咖啡种植地区的疾病,气候变化预计会加剧这种影响.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 植物病理学 植物病理学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 咖啡 (Coffea arabica L.) 是一个具有高经济价值的全球重要商品.
- 咖啡叶生 (Hemileia vastatrix) 严重影响了巴西咖啡的生产.
- 菌病的发展受到气候因素 (如温度和降水) 的强烈影响.
研究的目的:
- 在巴西主要的咖啡生产地区进行咖啡叶生的气候有利区划.
- 评估当前和未来气候变化对咖啡叶生分布的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用WorldClim v2.1.2.1收集当前和未来的气候数据 (温度,降水).
- 利用了来自IPCC报告的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景 (SSP-1 2.6至SSP-5 8.5).
- 使用QGIS软件进行了适合区划.
主要成果:
- 目前,巴西分析的咖啡生产区的49.1%有利于咖啡叶生.
- 米纳斯吉拉斯州显示55.3%的领土适合这种疾病,高峰发生时间为9月至3月.
- 帕托西尼奥和特雷斯庞塔斯被确定为具有优势条件的高产地.
结论:
- 气候变化对咖啡叶生的发展产生了负面影响,尤其是在长期内.
- 根据SSP-5 8.5情景 (2081-2100) 预测,巴西的疾病将转移到相对更有利的地区 (71.5%).
- 未来的气候预测表明疾病分布发生了复杂的变化,适度适合的区域可能会增加.
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