基于由元启发式算法优化随机森林的机动车交通事故严重程度的预测和解释
Xing Wang1, Yikun Su1, Zhizhe Zheng1
1School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, 150040, China.
Heliyon
|September 3, 2024
概括
准确的交通事故严重性预测是使用一个随机森林模型,由皇冠猪优化器优化改进. 该框架提高了预测准确性,并确定了温度和天气等关键因素,以提高道路安全性.
科学领域:
- 交通安全分析分析
- 机器学习在运输中的应用.
- 对道路交通事故的预测建模.
背景情况:
- 准确预测交通碰撞严重程度对于应急响应效率,伤亡人数减少和交通拥堵缓解至关重要.
- 现有的模型在实现高预测准确性和结果可解释性方面面临挑战.
- 整合时空碰撞特征是改善预测模型的关键.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一个新的交通事故严重性的预测框架.
- 提高交通事故严重程度预测的准确性和可解释性.
- 确定影响美国州际高速公路交通碰撞的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 提出了一个随机森林 (RF) 模型,该模型由皇冠大白猪优化器 (CPO) 优化,用于预测碰撞严重程度.
- 交通的综合时空特征与预测框架相撞.
- 使用2020年美国州际高速公路撞车数据,将优化射频模型的性能与各种整体和单一分类模型进行了比较.
- 使用地理信息系统 (GIS) 来解释特征的重要性.
主要成果:
- 优化CPO的射频模型实现了最高的预测性能,精度,回忆,F1得分和精度超过90%.
- 确定了温度和天气等关键因素与车辆交通事故高度相关.
- 基于GIS的分析提供了对各种贡献因素的重要性的解释性见解.
结论:
- 拟议的框架在准确预测机动车交通事故严重程度和了解导致事故的因素方面取得了重大进展.
- 该研究建议在特定地区实施夜间照明和疲劳驾驶警报系统等措施.
- 调查结果为交通管理和城市发展的政策制定者提供了宝贵的参考资料,以提高道路安全.
相关概念视频
Survival Tree
73
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
73
Response Surface Methodology
98
Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is a collection of statistical and mathematical techniques used to develop, improve, and optimize processes. It is particularly valuable when many input variables or factors potentially influence a response variable.
The process of RSM involves several key steps:
The process of RSM involves several key steps:
98
Determination of Expected Frequency
2.2K
Suppose one wants to test independence between the two variables of a contingency table. The values in the table constitute the observed frequencies of the dataset. But how does one determine the expected frequency of the dataset? One of the important assumptions is that the two variables are independent, which means the variables do not influence each other. For independent variables, the statistical probability of any event involving both variables is calculated by multiplying the individual...
2.2K
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Algorithms for Numerical Problem Solving
45
Mechanistic models play a crucial role in algorithms for numerical problem-solving, particularly in nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NMEM). These models aim to minimize specific objective functions by evaluating various parameter estimates, leading to the development of systematic algorithms. In some cases, linearization techniques approximate the model using linear equations.
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
45
Hypothesis Test for Test of Independence
3.5K
The test of independence is a chi-square-based test used to determine whether two variables or factors are independent or dependent. This hypothesis test is used to examine the independence of the variables. One can construct two qualitative survey questions or experiments based on the variables in a contingency table. The goal is to see if the two variables are unrelated (independent) or related (dependent). The null and alternative hypotheses for this test are:
H0: The two variables (factors)...
H0: The two variables (factors)...
3.5K
Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predicted Value
225
In healthcare diagnostics, laboratory tests play a crucial role in identifying and diagnosing a wide range of medical conditions. However, interpreting test results is not always straightforward. An abnormal test result does not always confirm the presence of a disease, just as a normal result does not guarantee its absence. To assess the reliability of these diagnostic tools, healthcare practitioners rely on two key statistical indicators: sensitivity and specificity.
Sensitivity is the...
Sensitivity is the...
225


