在中国建筑业实现碳中和的道路
Yan Xia1,2, Ziyan Yang1,2, Xuemei Jiang3
1Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.
iScience
|September 3, 2024
概括
中国建筑行业的排放量将在2035年达到峰值,并在2060年下降. 实现"3060双碳目标"需要技术突破,而不仅仅是目前的政策,以有效缓解气候变化.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 建筑行业对全球碳排放做出了重大贡献.
- 中国的建筑业在国家和全球气候变化减缓工作中发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 了解生命周期碳排放对于有效的气候战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2060年中国建筑业碳排放的长期趋势.
- 评估绿色创新对排放轨迹的影响.
- 评估中国在建筑领域实现"3060双碳目标"的可行性.
主要方法:
- 建筑行业碳排放的生命周期评估.
- 场景分析包括业务如常 (BAU) 和技术突破 (TB) 场景.
- 探索绿色创新对减排路径的影响.
主要成果:
- 中国建筑行业的碳排放量预计将在2035年达到6.98-7.69亿的峰值.
- 根据BAU情景,预计2060年排放量将达到11亿10亿.
- "3060双碳目标"只能在结核病情景下实现,这突显了先进绿色技术的需要.
结论:
- 目前的政策不足以实现建筑行业的"3060双碳目标".
- 在建筑行业的整个生命周期中,积极追求绿色技术创新是必不可少的.
- 优先考虑钢铁和水泥等关键材料的低碳生产,对于减少排放至关重要.
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