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评估专家判断模型,以告知对生态系统生存能力和崩的评估
Josh Dorrough1,2, Samantha K Travers3,4, James Val5
1New South Wales Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Merimbula, New South Wales, Australia.
概括
专家对生态系统生存能力的判断有很大的差异. 使用多种专家和平均模型进行结构化的提取可以提高一致性,但可能会掩盖对受威胁生态系统保护策略的不同意见.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 环境管理环境管理
背景情况:
- 专家判断对于评估受威胁的生态系统至关重要,但对专业知识的狭窄定义和重大判断变化可能会阻碍决策.
- 使用多样化的专家小组进行结构化诱导,为更一致和透明的评估提供了途径.
研究的目的:
- 检查有关生态系统生存能力和危急生态系统崩的专家判断的差异.
- 调查判断变化是否与专家隶属和管理专业知识相关.
- 根据共同的生态系统指标评估平均模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 根据专业知识的广泛定义,对83名专家进行了结构化诱导.
- 根据专家的归属 (例如政府,保护,农业) 和管理专业知识分析了判断变化.
- 评估了所有专家均等加权的平均模型的性能和分类错误.
主要成果:
- 在判决中观察到系统的个体差异,在很大程度上无法通过关联或专业知识来解释.
- 政府的保护专家比农业专家更有可能认为补丁是可行的.
- 农业专家的平均模型分类错误率最高 (27%) 保护专家的平均模型分类错误率最低 (12%),主要涉及放牧或清除的面积.
结论:
- 虽然平均模型提高了评估的一致性,但它可能不能完全代表不同的专家意见,可能掩盖了关键的分歧.
- 结构化的诱导和生态系统可行性模型对于识别和解决专家差异至关重要,以告知保护和恢复政策.
- 了解这些变化对于利益相关者参与和有效管理受威胁的生态系统至关重要.
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