渡轮运输的航行风险评估:基于模糊的最佳-最差方法的持续风险管理矩阵
Linh Thi Pham1, Long Van Hoang2
1Faculty of Accounting-Finance, Dong Nai Technology University, Bien Hoa City, Vietnam.
PloS one
|September 3, 2024
概括
通过识别和管理风险因素,提高渡轮航行安全. 这项研究使用连续风险管理矩阵和模糊的最佳-最坏方法来确定极端风险,如糟糕的应急功能和交通拥堵.
科学领域:
- 海上安全的航行.
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 决策分析 决策分析
背景情况:
- 渡轮运输面临着不安全航行带来的重大风险,导致致命事故.
- 提高渡轮航行安全性需要强有力的风险减轻策略.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用一种新的持续风险管理矩阵 (CRMM) 来评估渡轮运输中的航行风险.
- 确定和优先考虑影响渡轮航行安全的关键风险因素 (RF).
主要方法:
- 为渡轮运输风险评估量身定制的CRMM框架的开发.
- 应用模糊的最佳-最差方法 (BMW) 来确定RF的概率和严重性权重.
- 将20个已识别的RF分为不同的风险区 (极端,高,中,低) 的分类.
主要成果:
- 该研究成功将20个RF分为4个风险区.
- 三个RF被确定为构成极端风险:疏散/应急响应不足,海上交通拥堵,以及对航行法规的培训不足.
结论:
- 拟议的CRMM模型,利用模糊的BMW,为渡轮航行风险管理提供了一种系统的方法.
- 这项研究为海事研究中的风险管理和多重标准决策分析 (MCDA) 提供了宝贵的方法参考.
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