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绘制高森林低森林砍伐司法管辖区的未来
Hoong Chen Teo1,2, Tasya Vadya Sarira1,2, Audrey R P Tan1,2
1Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117558, Singapore.
概括
高森林低森林砍伐管辖区 (HFLDs) 的森林损失速度快于历史速度. 目前的碳融资基线可能不足以保护这些重要的完整森林免受未来的威胁.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
- 气候变化 气候变化
背景情况:
- 高森林低森林砍伐管辖区 (HFLD) 对全球森林保护至关重要.
- 现有的碳融资模型依赖于历史森林砍伐率进行基线计算.
- 这些历史基线可能不准确地反映了对HFLDs的当前或未来威胁.
研究的目的:
- 评估与历史基线相比,HFLD的森林砍伐趋势.
- 预测HFLD未来的森林砍伐轨迹.
- 评估当前碳融资基线对HFLDs的充分性.
主要方法:
- 从2002年到2020年,对310个HFLD的森林砍伐数据进行分析.
- 观察到的森林砍伐速度与历史基线的比较.
- 开发和应用一个实证的多因素模型来预测未来的森林砍伐.
主要成果:
- 在2002年至2020年期间,HFLD的森林砍伐率比历史基线高出44%.
- 60个HFLD显示了高森林砍伐的时期,比它们的历史基线高7.5倍.
- 一个经验模型预测,大多数HFLD将在2020-2038年面临森林砍伐的增加,其中72个可能会经历高森林砍伐.
结论:
- 目前的碳融资基线对于高空房地产发展公司来说是不够的.
- 改进的基线方法至关重要,以确保为HFLD保护提供足够的资金.
- 迫切需要采取努力,保护HFLD森林免受不断升级的威胁.
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